CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
37-22 | Road
116
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
25-31 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
BUCKS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
CLE By 1-7 points
21.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
10.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
110
CLEVELAND
Milwaukee
113
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Cleveland
110
CLEVELAND
Milwaukee
115
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o222.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u222.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
CLE @ MIL
123 - 116
Feb 25, 2026
CLE @ MIL
116 - 118
Nov 17, 2025
MIL @ CLE
106 - 118
Oct 26, 2025
MIL @ CLE
113 - 118
Mar 9, 2025
CLE @ MIL
112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Milwaukee: 79.9%
vs
Cleveland: 76.5%
Steals (L5)
+23.5% more
Cleveland: 9.8
vs
Milwaukee: 7.5
Blocks (L5)
+10.8% more
Cleveland: 5.0
vs
Milwaukee: 4.5
Assists (L5)
+8.9% more
Cleveland: 26.0
vs
Milwaukee: 23.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
110.0
116
MIL Score
113.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 37.6
42.0 / 30.0
Assists
23.6 / 26.0
28.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.0
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 48.0
55.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 76.5
60.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
44.6 / 44.5
36.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.8
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 13.7
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CLE
MIL
CLE
ML
64%
61-35
60%
69-46
60%
49-32
56%
55-44
ATS
68%
65-31
67%
75-37-3
60%
49-32
56%
55-44
TTL
55%
53-43
59%
68-47
100%
81-0
100%
99-0
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