Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Penguins @ Panthers YSU @ MILW

YOUNGSTOWN STATE

PENGUINSYSU

15-14  |  Road

65
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 8:00 PM ET
UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

PANTHERSMILW

11-19  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
PENGUINS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Youngstown State)
PenguinsYSU (-3.5) 0 PanthersMILW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

84.1%

Panthers Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)

YSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

YSU By 8-14 points

27.2%

MILW By 1-7 points

10.7%

MILW By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
78
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
68
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
71
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
78
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 YSU @ MILW 65 - 78
Jan 24, 2026 MILW @ YSU 65 - 64
Feb 21, 2025 MILW @ YSU 84 - 74
Jan 17, 2025 YSU @ MILW 64 - 79
Feb 23, 2024 YSU @ MILW 84 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
Youngstown State: 14.0 vs Milwaukee: 11.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Youngstown State: 73.6% vs Milwaukee: 69.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Youngstown State: 49.4% vs Milwaukee: 45.1%
Blocks (L5) +15.5% more
Milwaukee: 4.5 vs Youngstown State: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
YSU Score 78.0 65
MILW Score 68.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 36.5 43.0 / 26.0
Assists 15.8 / 15.9 12.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.9 0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 49.4 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 73.6 79.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 36.2 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.8 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 14.0 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
MILW
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
MILW Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +0.2
MILW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MILW
YSU
MILW
YSU
ML
50% 16-16
57% 17-13
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
ATS
47% 15-17
47% 14-16
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
TTL
59% 19-13
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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