Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sycamores @ Salukis INST @ SIU

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

10-19  |  Road

55
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Banterra Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

14-15  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
100%
📊
SALUKIS
0%
SYCAMORES --
SALUKIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Southern Illinois)
SycamoresINST (-3.5) 0 SalukisSIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sycamores Cover

13.6%

Salukis Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)

INST By 1-7 points

9.3%

INST By 8-14 points

2.7%

SIU By 1-7 points

21.6%

SIU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
69
INDIANA STATE
80
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
79
INDIANA STATE
70
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Salukis Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Salukis (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Sycamores (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 INST @ SIU 55 - 66
Feb 9, 2026 SIU @ INST 80 - 65
Mar 6, 2025 INST @ SIU 85 - 86
Mar 2, 2025 SIU @ INST 77 - 95
Feb 17, 2024 INST @ SIU 69 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.4% more
Southern Illinois: 8.4 vs Indiana State: 6.3
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Southern Illinois: 36.4 vs Indiana State: 33.3
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Indiana State: 16.4 vs Southern Illinois: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Indiana State: 69.4% vs Southern Illinois: 58.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 69.0 55
SIU Score 80.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 31.9 11.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.1 / 16.4 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.8 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 45.8 39.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 58.5 / 69.4 88.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 33.3 39.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.4 / 6.3 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 13.4 8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
SIU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
SIU
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
INST
SIU
INST
ML
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
47% 15-17
53% 17-15
ATS
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
47% 15-17
53% 17-15
TTL
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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