SANTA CLARA
BRONCOSSCU
23-6 | Road
67
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
25-4 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
GAELS
0%
BRONCOS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
SCU By 1-7 points
15.3%
SCU By 8-14 points
5.8%
SMC By 1-7 points
26.2%
SMC By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Santa Clara
80
SANTA CLARA
Saint Mary's
87
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Santa Clara
68
SANTA CLARA
Saint Mary's
75
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
SCU @ SMC
76 - 71
Feb 25, 2026
SCU @ SMC
67 - 86
Jan 17, 2026
SMC @ SCU
54 - 62
Feb 11, 2025
SCU @ SMC
64 - 73
Jan 29, 2025
SMC @ SCU
67 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+117.5% more
Saint Mary's: 5.4
vs
Santa Clara: 2.5
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
Saint Mary's: 39.5
vs
Santa Clara: 34.8
Turnovers (L5)
+10.9% more
Saint Mary's: 10.5
vs
Santa Clara: 9.4
Steals (L5)
+40.2% more
Santa Clara: 10.7
vs
Saint Mary's: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SCU Score
80.0
67
SMC Score
87.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.2 / 38.8
42.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.2 / 15.2
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 48.1
49.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 82.9
79.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 34.8
51.0 / 21.0
Steals
6.4 / 10.7
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 9.4
13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +4.0
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
SCU
SMC
SCU
ML
56%
18-14
44%
15-19
82%
23-5
73%
22-8
ATS
62%
20-12
53%
18-16
83%
24-5
74%
23-8
TTL
53%
17-15
47%
16-18
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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