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NORTHERN KENTUCKY

NORSENKU

17-12  |  Road

81
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Wolstein Center
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND STATE

VIKINGSCLE

10-19  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
0%
📊
VIKINGS
100%
NORSE --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
NorseNKU (-3.5) 0 VikingsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Norse Cover

88.5%

Vikings Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)

NKU By 1-7 points

20.1%

NKU By 8-14 points

27.2%

CLE By 1-7 points

8.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
80
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
68
CLEVELAND STATE
Simulated Score
70
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
78
CLEVELAND STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Norse Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Norse (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 NKU @ CLE 81 - 70
Dec 3, 2025 CLE @ NKU 80 - 95
Mar 6, 2025 NKU @ CLE 63 - 68
Feb 5, 2025 CLE @ NKU 75 - 85
Jan 15, 2025 NKU @ CLE 58 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +25.0% more
Northern Kentucky: 37.3 vs Cleveland State: 28.0
Blocks (L5) +24.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 3.1 vs Cleveland State: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +18.3% more
Northern Kentucky: 13.7 vs Cleveland State: 11.2
Steals (L5) +14.0% more
Northern Kentucky: 7.8 vs Cleveland State: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NKU Score 80.0 81
CLE Score 68.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 31.8 21.0 / 36.0
Assists 17.8 / 14.5 11.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.1 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 41.5 40.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 63.5 81.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 28.0 / 37.3 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.8 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.7 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
CLE
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
CLE
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +5.4
CLE
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NKU
CLE
NKU
ML
52% 17-16
53% 18-16
64% 21-12
65% 22-12
ATS
64% 21-12
56% 19-15
64% 21-12
65% 22-12
TTL
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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