SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
19-8 | Road
69
CALIFORNIA
GOLDEN BEARSCAL
19-8 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
GOLDEN BEARS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
GOLDEN BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)
SMU By 1-7 points
26.8%
SMU By 8-14 points
18.6%
CAL By 1-7 points
23.0%
CAL By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
80
SMU
California
78
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
SMU
68
SMU
California
72
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Bears (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Golden Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
SMU @ CAL
69 - 73
Feb 26, 2025
SMU @ CAL
81 - 77
Jan 29, 2025
CAL @ SMU
65 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+34.2% more
SMU: 20.1
vs
California: 13.2
Steals (L5)
+22.5% more
SMU: 6.1
vs
California: 4.7
Blocks (L5)
+18.2% more
SMU: 3.1
vs
California: 2.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
SMU: 53.1%
vs
California: 43.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
80.0
69
CAL Score
78.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 39.6
28.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.2 / 20.1
17.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 53.1
40.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 75.0
80.0 / 42.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 36.9
33.0 / 44.0
Steals
4.7 / 6.1
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 7.9
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
CAL
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
CAL
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
SMU
CAL
SMU
ML
61%
20-13
59%
20-14
77%
24-7
73%
24-9
ATS
64%
21-12
62%
21-13
78%
25-7
73%
24-9
TTL
70%
23-10
56%
19-15
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins: Unbeaten Bruins Invade Autzen as C…
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
John Calipari Clarifies Stance on Player Compensation After Vira…
SDSU's Nick Anderson Making Speedy Recovery from ACL Surgery, Ey…