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THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

9-20  |  Road

51
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 6:00 PM ET
Timmons Arena
View Odds Details →

FURMAN

PALADINSFUR

18-11  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
PALADINS
0%
BULLDOGS --
PALADINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Furman)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 PaladinsFUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

42.1%

Paladins Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FUR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)

CIT By 1-7 points

23.0%

CIT By 8-14 points

12.2%

FUR By 1-7 points

26.8%

FUR By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
THE CITADEL
83
FURMAN
Simulated Score
79
THE CITADEL
68
FURMAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Paladins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Paladins (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 CIT @ FUR 51 - 72
Jan 21, 2026 FUR @ CIT 75 - 77
Feb 26, 2025 CIT @ FUR 42 - 85
Jan 8, 2025 FUR @ CIT 67 - 63
Jan 31, 2024 FUR @ CIT 82 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.1% more
Furman: 14.5 vs The Citadel: 10.9
Blocks (L5) +23.5% more
Furman: 3.1 vs The Citadel: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +14.3% more
Furman: 10.6 vs The Citadel: 9.3
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
Furman: 37.1 vs The Citadel: 33.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 81.0 51
FUR Score 83.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 30.0 22.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.5 / 10.9 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 37.0 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 67.2 76.0 / 25.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 33.3 50.0 / 20.0
Steals 3.2 / 6.8 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 9.3 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
FUR Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
FUR
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FUR
CIT
FUR
CIT
ML
71% 25-10
59% 19-13
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
ATS
63% 22-13
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
64% 21-12
TTL
57% 20-15
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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