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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-21-9  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

37-14-4  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anthony Stolarz None-None 4.34 0.889 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.00 0.941 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.34 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.889 Save % Ldr 0.941
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TORONTO
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 TB @ TOR 5 - 2
Feb 25, 2026 TOR @ TB 2 - 4
Dec 8, 2025 TB @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 9, 2025 TOR @ TB 4 - 3
Jan 20, 2025 TB @ TOR 3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +50.3% more
Tampa Bay: 25.7 vs Toronto: 17.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +17.2% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Toronto: 28.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +24.2% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Power Play % (L5) +7.7%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Tampa Bay: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.0 2
TB Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
82%MONEY18%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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