Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Cardinal PITT @ STAN

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

10-17  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

16-11  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
CARDINAL
0%
PANTHERS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Stanford)
PanthersPITT (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

38.2%

Cardinal Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STAN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

PITT By 1-7 points

21.6%

PITT By 8-14 points

10.7%

STAN By 1-7 points

27.2%

STAN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
65
PITTSBURGH
68
STANFORD
Simulated Score
69
PITTSBURGH
81
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinal Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinal (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 PITT @ STAN 64 - 63
Feb 25, 2026 PITT @ STAN 67 - 75
Jan 4, 2025 STAN @ PITT 68 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +192.5% more
Stanford: 5.1 vs Pittsburgh: 1.7
Steals (L5) +37.7% more
Stanford: 7.4 vs Pittsburgh: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Stanford: 68.2% vs Pittsburgh: 64.4%
Assists (L5) +29.2% more
Pittsburgh: 14.7 vs Stanford: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 65.0 67
STAN Score 68.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 35.8 35.0 / 39.0
Assists 10.4 / 14.7 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.1 / 1.7 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 42.4 50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 64.4 100.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 33.0 29.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.4 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.6 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
PITT
STAN
PITT
ML
48% 16-17
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
45% 15-18
ATS
48% 16-17
64% 21-12
50% 16-16
45% 15-18
TTL
55% 18-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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