Home / NBA Projections NBA / 76ers @ Pacers PHI @ IND

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

31-26  |  Road

135
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-43  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
76ERS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Indiana)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

27.4%

Pacers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

PHI By 1-7 points

16.9%

PHI By 8-14 points

6.8%

IND By 1-7 points

26.8%

IND By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
117
PHILADELPHIA
123
INDIANA
Simulated Score
109
PHILADELPHIA
122
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Sim u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHI @ IND 105 - 94
Feb 24, 2026 PHI @ IND 135 - 114
Jan 19, 2026 IND @ PHI 104 - 113
Dec 12, 2025 IND @ PHI 105 - 115
Mar 14, 2025 IND @ PHI 112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.9% more
Indiana: 31.3 vs Philadelphia: 23.4
Turnovers (L5) +32.5% more
Indiana: 17.3 vs Philadelphia: 13.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Indiana: 47.9% vs Philadelphia: 44.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Indiana: 40.5% vs Philadelphia: 38.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 117.0 135
IND Score 123.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 38.5 30.0 / 28.0
Assists 31.3 / 23.4 27.0 / 29.0
Blocks 2.8 / 5.0 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 44.7 43.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 77.1 86.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 41.9 41.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.8 / 11.1 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 13.0 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
PHI
IND
PHI
ML
48% 47-50
63% 69-40
54% 45-38
48% 45-48
ATS
59% 57-40
65% 71-38
54% 45-38
48% 45-48
TTL
54% 52-45
55% 60-49
100% 83-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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