MIAMI
HEATMIA
31-27 | Road
117
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
24-31 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
BUCKS
100%
HEAT
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.4%
MIL By 1-7 points
9.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
120
MIAMI
Milwaukee
109
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+6)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.9% more
Miami: 8.6
vs
Milwaukee: 6.2
Assists (L5)
+25.6% more
Miami: 30.9
vs
Milwaukee: 23.0
Rebounding (L5)
+19.9% more
Miami: 54.8
vs
Milwaukee: 43.9
Turnovers (L5)
+19.1% more
Milwaukee: 15.9
vs
Miami: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
120.0
117
MIL Score
109.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 35.0
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
23.0 / 30.9
25.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.9
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 48.1
49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 76.8
84.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
43.9 / 54.8
46.0 / 51.0
Steals
6.2 / 8.6
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 13.3
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIA
MIL
MIA
ML
64%
61-35
48%
46-50
60%
49-32
59%
48-34
ATS
68%
65-31
51%
49-47
60%
49-32
59%
48-34
TTL
55%
53-43
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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