Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Nets DAL @ BKN

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

20-36  |  Road

123
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Barclays Center
View Odds Details →

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

15-41  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
NETS
100%
MAVERICKS --
NETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
198.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 NetsBKN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

72.6%

Nets Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

24.3%

BKN By 1-7 points

16.9%

BKN By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
102
DALLAS
96
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Nets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.5 Loss
Proj Total: 198.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 DAL @ BKN 123 - 114
Jan 12, 2026 BKN @ DAL 105 - 113
Dec 12, 2025 BKN @ DAL 111 - 119
Mar 31, 2025 BKN @ DAL 113 - 109
Mar 24, 2025 DAL @ BKN 120 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Dallas: 48.3% vs Brooklyn: 42.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Dallas: 33.7% vs Brooklyn: 31.1%
Blocks (L5) +56.5% more
Brooklyn: 4.7 vs Dallas: 3.0
Turnovers (L5) +33.2% more
Brooklyn: 16.0 vs Dallas: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 102.0 123
BKN Score 96.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 33.7 41.0 / 35.0
Assists 25.6 / 24.6 29.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 48.3 51.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 71.5 70.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 42.1 28.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.0 / 8.9 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 12.0 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
BKN Advantage
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
DAL
BKN
DAL
ML
53% 50-45
62% 63-39
59% 48-34
54% 44-37
ATS
52% 48-44-3
67% 68-34
59% 48-34
54% 44-37
TTL
57% 54-41
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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