WESTERN MICHIGAN
BRONCOSWMU
9-18 | Road
88
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
16-12 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
FALCONS
0%
BRONCOS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
WMU By 1-7 points
18.6%
WMU By 8-14 points
8.0%
BGSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Michigan
71
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Bowling Green
76
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Western Michigan
73
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Bowling Green
78
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
WMU @ BGSU
88 - 79
Jan 20, 2026
BGSU @ WMU
72 - 54
Mar 7, 2025
WMU @ BGSU
64 - 63
Jan 7, 2025
BGSU @ WMU
83 - 79
Mar 5, 2024
BGSU @ WMU
73 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+91.4% more
Bowling Green: 7.1
vs
Western Michigan: 3.7
Blocks (L5)
+54.0% more
Bowling Green: 4.3
vs
Western Michigan: 2.8
Turnovers (L5)
+11.2% more
Bowling Green: 12.1
vs
Western Michigan: 10.9
Rebounding (L5)
+9.2% more
Bowling Green: 36.3
vs
Western Michigan: 33.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WMU Score
71.0
88
BGSU Score
76.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 35.2
38.0 / 44.0
Assists
10.8 / 11.3
14.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.8
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 41.4
42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 76.6
66.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 33.2
35.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.1 / 3.7
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 10.9
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +1.3
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
WMU
BGSU
WMU
ML
66%
21-11
60%
18-12
56%
18-14
70%
21-9
ATS
72%
23-9
67%
20-10
56%
18-14
70%
21-9
TTL
53%
17-15
57%
17-13
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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