Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Trojans UL @ TROY

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

10-19  |  Road

59
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Trojan Arena
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROJANSTROY

18-11  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
0%
📊
TROJANS
100%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 TrojansTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

18.4%

Trojans Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

UL By 1-7 points

24.3%

UL By 8-14 points

26.8%

TROY By 1-7 points

12.2%

TROY By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
72
LOUISIANA
63
TROY
Simulated Score
68
LOUISIANA
72
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ragin' Cajuns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trojans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trojans (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Trojans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 UL @ TROY 59 - 78
Jan 10, 2026 TROY @ UL 90 - 70
Feb 20, 2025 UL @ TROY 72 - 69
Feb 12, 2025 TROY @ UL 74 - 56
Feb 28, 2024 TROY @ UL 87 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.0% more
Louisiana: 4.8 vs Troy: 3.1
Steals (L5) +27.6% more
Louisiana: 7.0 vs Troy: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +16.9%
Louisiana: 45.2% vs Troy: 28.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Louisiana: 42.0% vs Troy: 36.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 72.0 59
TROY Score 63.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 45.2 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.6 / 9.2 19.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.8 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 36.8 / 42.0 50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 75.3 88.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 29.0 34.0 / 23.0
Steals 5.1 / 7.0 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 9.1 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
UL
TROY
UL
ML
59% 20-14
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
63% 19-11
ATS
65% 22-12
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
63% 19-11
TTL
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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