USC
TROJANSUSC
18-9 | Road
62
UCLA
BRUINSUCLA
18-9 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
BRUINS
0%
TROJANS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UCLA)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCLA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)
USC By 1-7 points
23.0%
USC By 8-14 points
12.2%
UCLA By 1-7 points
26.8%
UCLA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
75
USC
UCLA
77
UCLA
Simulated Score
USC
73
USC
UCLA
78
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UCLA @ USC
89 - 68
Feb 24, 2026
USC @ UCLA
62 - 81
Mar 8, 2025
USC @ UCLA
63 - 90
Jan 27, 2025
UCLA @ USC
82 - 76
Feb 24, 2024
USC @ UCLA
62 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.6% more
UCLA: 15.2
vs
USC: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
UCLA: 76.1%
vs
USC: 70.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
UCLA: 37.4%
vs
USC: 33.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
UCLA: 44.3%
vs
USC: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
75.0
62
UCLA Score
77.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 33.7
35.0 / 31.0
Assists
15.2 / 13.5
18.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.0 / 5.5
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 41.2
49.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 70.7
86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
29.5 / 34.0
31.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.4 / 8.4
8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 12.4
5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
UCLA
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
UCLA
Advantage
17-18-1
(48.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
USC
UCLA
USC
ML
67%
24-12
52%
16-15
76%
25-8
58%
18-13
ATS
61%
22-14
68%
21-10
76%
25-8
58%
18-13
TTL
61%
22-14
68%
21-10
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
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UCLA's Unlikely Heroes: TaShawn James, Jalen Woods, and Semaj Mo…
How the Bruins Stunned the Rangers with a Late Third-Period Outb…
Big Ten Road Warriors: Historic Saturday Shakes Up Conference Po…
UCLA's Dominant Road Win Over Maryland: Four Interceptions and E…