Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Hoosiers NU @ IU

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

11-16  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

17-10  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
HOOSIERS
0%
WILDCATS --
HOOSIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Indiana)
WildcatsNU (-3.5) 0 HoosiersIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

15.9%

Hoosiers Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

NU By 1-7 points

10.7%

NU By 8-14 points

3.3%

IU By 1-7 points

23.0%

IU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
59
NORTHWESTERN
69
INDIANA
Simulated Score
73
NORTHWESTERN
78
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hoosiers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Hoosiers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 NU @ IU 74 - 61
Feb 24, 2026 NU @ IU 72 - 68
Jan 22, 2025 IU @ NU 70 - 79
Feb 18, 2024 NU @ IU 76 - 72
Feb 15, 2023 IU @ NU 62 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Indiana: 48.6% vs Northwestern: 43.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Indiana: 74.7% vs Northwestern: 69.4%
Steals (L5) +82.2% more
Northwestern: 8.2 vs Indiana: 1.5
Blocks (L5) +29.8% more
Northwestern: 3.7 vs Indiana: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 59.0 72
IU Score 69.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 38.1 36.0 / 46.0
Assists 14.7 / 15.6 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.7 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 43.3 46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 69.4 86.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 24.6 / 25.7 23.0 / 34.0
Steals 1.5 / 8.2 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 9.7 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
IU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
NU
IU
NU
ML
66% 21-11
47% 16-18
71% 22-9
68% 23-11
ATS
53% 17-15
50% 17-17
71% 22-9
68% 23-11
TTL
56% 18-14
53% 18-16
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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