TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERSTENN
20-7 | Road
69
MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
18-9 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
0%
TIGERS
100%
VOLUNTEERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIZ +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)
TENN By 1-7 points
26.8%
TENN By 8-14 points
18.6%
MIZ By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIZ By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee
72
TENNESSEE
Missouri
70
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
Tennessee
75
TENNESSEE
Missouri
65
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Volunteers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Volunteers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Volunteers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
TENN @ MIZ
69 - 73
Feb 5, 2025
MIZ @ TENN
81 - 85
Feb 20, 2024
TENN @ MIZ
72 - 67
Mar 10, 2023
TENN @ MIZ
71 - 79
Feb 11, 2023
MIZ @ TENN
86 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+37.8% more
Tennessee: 7.3
vs
Missouri: 4.5
Rebounding (L5)
+22.2% more
Tennessee: 40.9
vs
Missouri: 31.8
Turnovers (L5)
+18.8% more
Missouri: 11.1
vs
Tennessee: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Missouri: 37.7%
vs
Tennessee: 33.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TENN Score
72.0
69
MIZ Score
70.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 33.1
24.0 / 29.0
Assists
15.4 / 15.2
9.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.5
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 45.4
47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 72.5
77.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 40.9
30.0 / 42.0
Steals
4.5 / 7.3
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 9.4
8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
Advantage
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
TENN
MIZ
TENN
ML
61%
20-13
46%
17-20
69%
22-10
64%
21-12
ATS
70%
23-10
54%
20-17
69%
22-10
64%
21-12
TTL
79%
26-7
76%
28-9
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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