UTAH
JAZZUTAH
18-39 | Road
105
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
34-21 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
ROCKETS
0%
JAZZ
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
UTAH By 1-7 points
13.7%
UTAH By 8-14 points
4.8%
HOU By 1-7 points
25.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
120
UTAH
Houston
128
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Utah
112
UTAH
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.0
Win
Proj Total: 248.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025
UTAH @ HOU
127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+62.3% more
Houston: 6.7
vs
Utah: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.6%
Houston: 81.3%
vs
Utah: 71.7%
Steals (L5)
+23.4% more
Utah: 11.1
vs
Houston: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+22.5% more
Utah: 29.0
vs
Houston: 22.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
120.0
105
HOU Score
128.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 36.7
45.0 / 18.0
Assists
22.4 / 29.0
34.0 / 23.0
Blocks
6.7 / 4.1
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 48.8
57.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
81.3 / 71.7
82.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 47.6
53.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.5 / 11.1
10.0 / 17.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 19.5
27.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
ML
61%
69-44
60%
96-63
59%
51-35
48%
40-43
ATS
62%
70-43
68%
108-51
59%
51-35
48%
40-43
TTL
51%
58-55
75%
119-39-1
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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