Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Tar Heels LOU @ UNC

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

20-7  |  Road

74
FINAL
Mon, Feb 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

21-6  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
CARDINALS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Carolina)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

24.2%

Tar Heels Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

LOU By 1-7 points

15.3%

LOU By 8-14 points

5.8%

UNC By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNC By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
LOUISVILLE
76
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
65
LOUISVILLE
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 LOU @ UNC 74 - 77
Jan 1, 2025 UNC @ LOU 70 - 83
Jan 17, 2024 LOU @ UNC 70 - 86
Jan 14, 2023 UNC @ LOU 80 - 59
Feb 21, 2022 LOU @ UNC 63 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.0% more
Louisville: 7.8 vs North Carolina: 4.0
Turnovers (L5) +39.4% more
Louisville: 15.1 vs North Carolina: 9.2
Assists (L5) +28.0% more
Louisville: 17.3 vs North Carolina: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5) +16.7%
Louisville: 85.5% vs North Carolina: 68.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 69.0 74
UNC Score 76.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 42.5 36.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.5 / 17.3 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 50.8 54.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 85.5 47.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 34.1 32.0 / 41.0
Steals 4.0 / 7.8 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 15.1 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
LOU
UNC
LOU
ML
76% 25-8
63% 22-13
69% 22-10
71% 24-10
ATS
73% 24-9
71% 25-10
69% 22-10
71% 24-10
TTL
55% 18-15
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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