DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
36-21 | Road
117
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
29-27 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
NUGGETS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
21.6%
GS By 1-7 points
20.1%
GS By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
118
DENVER
Golden State
114
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Golden State
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
GS @ DEN
93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026
DEN @ GS
117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025
GS @ DEN
104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025
DEN @ GS
131 - 137
Apr 4, 2025
DEN @ GS
104 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+20.2% more
Denver: 50.0
vs
Golden State: 39.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.8%
Denver: 78.3%
vs
Golden State: 65.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+11.0% more
Denver: 15.4
vs
Golden State: 13.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Denver: 41.9%
vs
Golden State: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
118.0
117
GS Score
114.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 41.9
40.0 / 26.0
Assists
30.7 / 32.8
42.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.9
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 51.2
51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 78.3
92.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 50.0
44.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.4 / 8.4
14.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 15.4
18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DEN
GS
DEN
ML
55%
95-79
54%
57-48
58%
49-35
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
101-73
63%
65-38-2
58%
49-35
55%
47-39
TTL
77%
134-40
54%
56-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
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