Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Lakers BOS @ LAL

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

36-19  |  Road

111
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 6:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

34-21  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
CELTICS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

94.5%

Lakers Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

13.7%

BOS By 8-14 points

24.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

4.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
116
BOSTON
100
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
122
BOSTON
117
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 BOS @ LAL 111 - 89
Dec 5, 2025 LAL @ BOS 105 - 126
Mar 8, 2025 LAL @ BOS 101 - 111
Jan 23, 2025 BOS @ LAL 96 - 117
Feb 1, 2024 LAL @ BOS 114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.2% more
Boston: 5.8 vs Los Angeles: 3.6
Rebounding (L5) +25.7% more
Boston: 50.1 vs Los Angeles: 37.2
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Los Angeles: 7.9 vs Boston: 6.9
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
Los Angeles: 14.7 vs Boston: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 116.0 111
LAL Score 100.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 35.5 30.0 / 39.0
Assists 29.3 / 28.4 18.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.8 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 52.2 / 47.5 39.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 78.6 67.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 50.1 39.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.9 / 6.9 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 12.9 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
BOS
LAL
BOS
ML
61% 68-43
57% 61-46
54% 49-42
53% 47-41
ATS
61% 67-43-1
59% 61-43-3
54% 49-42
53% 47-41
TTL
61% 66-43-2
56% 60-47
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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