Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mastodons @ Vikings PFW @ CLE

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

15-13  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 2:00 PM ET
Wolstein Center
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND STATE

VIKINGSCLE

10-18  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
📊
VIKINGS
0%
MASTODONS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CLEVELAND STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Cleveland State)
MastodonsPFW (-3.5) 0 VikingsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mastodons Cover

27.4%

Vikings Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

PFW By 1-7 points

16.9%

PFW By 8-14 points

6.8%

CLE By 1-7 points

26.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
87
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
93
CLEVELAND STATE
Simulated Score
70
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
75
CLEVELAND STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 PFW @ CLE 92 - 86
Jan 4, 2026 CLE @ PFW 71 - 74
Mar 1, 2025 PFW @ CLE 57 - 68
Jan 30, 2025 CLE @ PFW 68 - 58
Feb 7, 2024 CLE @ PFW 75 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +42.5% more
Cleveland State: 16.1 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 11.3
Blocks (L5) +29.5% more
Cleveland State: 2.5 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 1.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Cleveland State: 77.8% vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 70.9%
Steals (L5) +13.2% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 7.0 vs Cleveland State: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PFW Score 87.0 92
CLE Score 93.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 37.2 41.0 / 45.0
Assists 16.1 / 11.3 21.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.5 / 1.9 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 45.9 47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 70.9 70.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 26.4 / 27.9 31.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.0 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 11.0 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
CLE
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW Advantage
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
CLE
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
CLE
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PFW
CLE
PFW
ML
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
74% 23-8
ATS
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
64% 21-12
74% 23-8
TTL
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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