GRAMBLING
TIGERSGRAM
11-14 | Road
73
SOUTHERN
JAGUARSSOU
12-14 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
JAGUARS
0%
TIGERS
--
JAGUARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Southern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SOU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)
GRAM By 1-7 points
13.7%
GRAM By 8-14 points
4.8%
SOU By 1-7 points
25.3%
SOU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Grambling
72
GRAMBLING
Southern
80
SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
Grambling
68
GRAMBLING
Southern
73
SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jaguars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaguars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jaguars (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Jaguars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
GRAM @ SOU
73 - 87
Jan 17, 2026
SOU @ GRAM
71 - 53
Mar 12, 2025
GRAM @ SOU
65 - 62
Feb 22, 2025
SOU @ GRAM
71 - 64
Jan 18, 2025
GRAM @ SOU
60 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.8% more
Southern: 3.3
vs
Grambling: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+29.0% more
Southern: 13.3
vs
Grambling: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Southern: 44.0%
vs
Grambling: 40.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+24.4% more
Grambling: 14.3
vs
Southern: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score
72.0
73
SOU Score
80.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 31.6
50.0 / 25.0
Assists
13.3 / 10.3
22.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.3
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 40.1
59.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 80.7
83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 34.3
26.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.9
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 14.3
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
SOU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
SOU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -4.0
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SOU
GRAM
SOU
GRAM
ML
67%
22-11
68%
21-10
70%
21-9
68%
17-8
ATS
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
70%
21-9
68%
17-8
TTL
42%
14-19
58%
18-13
100%
30-0
100%
25-0
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