Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Chargers @ Knights NHVN @ FDU

NEW HAVEN

CHARGERSNHVN

12-15  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Bogota Savings Bank Center
View Odds Details →

FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

KNIGHTSFDU

11-17  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
CHARGERS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Fairleigh Dickinson)
ChargersNHVN (-3.5) 0 KnightsFDU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

18.4%

Knights Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FDU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FDU)

NHVN By 1-7 points

12.2%

NHVN By 8-14 points

4.0%

FDU By 1-7 points

24.3%

FDU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
57
NEW HAVEN
66
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Simulated Score
67
NEW HAVEN
83
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u123.5 Loss
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u123.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 NHVN @ FDU 84 - 77
Jan 10, 2026 FDU @ NHVN 55 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.7% more
Fairleigh Dickinson: 12.3 vs New Haven: 10.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Fairleigh Dickinson: 31.4% vs New Haven: 23.7%
Blocks (L5) +50.7% more
New Haven: 3.0 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 1.5
Steals (L5) +39.7% more
New Haven: 6.8 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NHVN Score 57.0 84
FDU Score 66.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 23.7 36.0 / 61.0
Assists 12.3 / 10.5 8.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.0 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 41.4 52.0 / 64.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 74.5 73.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 34.6 28.0 / 21.0
Steals 4.1 / 6.8 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 10.2 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NHVN Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
FDU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NHVN Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
FDU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.5
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FDU
NHVN
FDU
NHVN
ML
65% 20-11
71% 22-9
74% 23-8
68% 21-10
ATS
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
74% 23-8
68% 21-10
TTL
58% 18-13
42% 13-18
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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