Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Bulldogs RAD @ UNCA

RADFORD

HIGHLANDERSRAD

15-13  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:30 PM ET
Kimmel Arena
View Odds Details →

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

12-15  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (UNC Asheville)
HighlandersRAD (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUNCA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

15.9%

Bulldogs Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)

RAD By 1-7 points

10.7%

RAD By 8-14 points

3.3%

UNCA By 1-7 points

23.0%

UNCA By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
67
RADFORD
77
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
72
RADFORD
78
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u149.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 RAD @ UNCA 73 - 74
Jan 10, 2026 UNCA @ RAD 91 - 72
Feb 20, 2025 UNCA @ RAD 53 - 77
Jan 29, 2025 RAD @ UNCA 65 - 72
Mar 2, 2024 UNCA @ RAD 71 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +238.8% more
UNC Asheville: 6.8 vs Radford: 2.0
Steals (L5) +36.9% more
Radford: 8.3 vs UNC Asheville: 5.3
Assists (L5) +28.2% more
Radford: 14.0 vs UNC Asheville: 10.1
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Radford: 13.7 vs UNC Asheville: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RAD Score 67.0 73
UNCA Score 77.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 33.8 38.0 / 48.0
Assists 10.1 / 14.0 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 6.8 / 2.0 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.5 / 46.2 48.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 64.8 / 76.9 50.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 36.5 38.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.3 / 8.3 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 13.7 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RAD Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RAD
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
UNCA Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
RAD
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.9
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
RAD
UNCA
RAD
ML
53% 16-14
77% 23-7
63% 19-11
76% 22-7
ATS
57% 17-13
63% 19-11
63% 19-11
77% 23-7
TTL
60% 18-12
67% 20-10
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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