LE MOYNE
DOLPHINSLEM
14-14 | Road
68
STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
9-19 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
0%
SKYHAWKS
100%
DOLPHINS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)
LEM By 1-7 points
26.2%
LEM By 8-14 points
16.9%
STO By 1-7 points
24.3%
STO By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Le Moyne
68
LE MOYNE
Stonehill
67
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
Le Moyne
68
LE MOYNE
Stonehill
72
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dolphins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.0
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u138.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
STO @ LEM
81 - 71
Feb 21, 2026
LEM @ STO
68 - 77
Jan 31, 2026
STO @ LEM
65 - 54
Mar 1, 2025
LEM @ STO
79 - 85
Jan 20, 2025
STO @ LEM
72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+45.9% more
Le Moyne: 16.5
vs
Stonehill: 8.9
Steals (L5)
+19.5% more
Le Moyne: 5.2
vs
Stonehill: 4.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+13.1%
Le Moyne: 49.6%
vs
Stonehill: 36.5%
Rebounding (L5)
+12.2% more
Le Moyne: 36.0
vs
Stonehill: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LEM Score
68.0
68
STO Score
67.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 39.7
25.0 / 30.0
Assists
8.9 / 16.5
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.1 / 1.3
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
36.5 / 49.6
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
65.6 / 70.0
71.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 36.0
36.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.2 / 5.2
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 13.8
6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LEM
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-: +0.9
STO
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LEM
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-: +0.9
STO
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LEM
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +1.1
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
LEM
STO
LEM
ML
45%
15-18
68%
21-10
70%
23-10
68%
21-10
ATS
39%
13-20
65%
20-11
70%
23-10
69%
22-10
TTL
55%
18-15
42%
13-18
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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