Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Knicks HOU @ NY

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

34-20  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 8:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

35-21  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
KNICKS
100%
ROCKETS --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

96.4%

Knicks Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

10.7%

HOU By 8-14 points

21.6%

NY By 1-7 points

2.7%

NY By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
126
HOUSTON
108
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
111
HOUSTON
115
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knicks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o219.5 Loss
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u219.5 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 NY @ HOU 94 - 111
Feb 21, 2026 HOU @ NY 106 - 108
Feb 3, 2025 HOU @ NY 118 - 124
Nov 4, 2024 NY @ HOU 97 - 109
Feb 12, 2024 NY @ HOU 103 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.8% more
Houston: 7.1 vs New York: 5.0
Steals (L5) +19.5% more
Houston: 10.2 vs New York: 8.2
Turnovers (L5) +18.1% more
Houston: 15.2 vs New York: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
Houston: 83.0% vs New York: 76.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 126.0 106
NY Score 108.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 34.6 38.0 / 39.0
Assists 29.6 / 21.7 26.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.0 / 7.1 0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 46.6 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 83.0 88.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 42.6 29.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.2 / 10.2 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 15.2 12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
HOU
NY
HOU
ML
61% 114-72
61% 69-44
56% 57-45
59% 51-35
ATS
67% 124-62
62% 70-43
56% 57-45
59% 51-35
TTL
72% 133-53
51% 58-55
100% 102-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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