Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tommies @ Pioneers STMN @ DEN

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

21-7  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Hamilton Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

14-15  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
📊
PIONEERS
100%
TOMMIES --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TommiesSTMN (-3.5) 0 PioneersDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tommies Cover

42.1%

Pioneers Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

STMN By 1-7 points

26.8%

STMN By 8-14 points

18.6%

DEN By 1-7 points

23.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
84
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
82
DENVER
Simulated Score
69
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
78
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tommies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pioneers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 STMN @ DEN 80 - 82
Jan 4, 2026 DEN @ STMN 88 - 92
Mar 6, 2025 DEN @ STMN 62 - 80
Feb 8, 2025 STMN @ DEN 79 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 DEN @ STMN 62 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.3 vs Denver: 1.1
Assists (L5) +35.1% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 18.7 vs Denver: 12.1
Steals (L5) +18.2% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 6.8 vs Denver: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.3 vs Denver: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STMN Score 84.0 80
DEN Score 82.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.6 / 41.9 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.1 / 18.7 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.1 / 2.3 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 55.5 47.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 84.3 / 62.8 85.0 / 40.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 33.9 28.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.8 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 7.3 / 8.3 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
STMN
DEN
STMN
ML
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
ATS
66% 21-11
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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