Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Dons SCU @ SF

SANTA CLARA

BRONCOSSCU

22-6  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 10:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

15-14  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
DONS
100%
BRONCOS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SANTA CLARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Santa Clara)
BroncosSCU (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

95.5%

Dons Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SCU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCU)

SCU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SCU By 8-14 points

23.0%

SF By 1-7 points

3.3%

SF By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
89
SANTA CLARA
72
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
70
SANTA CLARA
75
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 SCU @ SF 94 - 73
Jan 28, 2026 SF @ SCU 73 - 88
Jan 11, 2025 SF @ SCU 54 - 77
Dec 30, 2024 SCU @ SF 94 - 97
Mar 2, 2024 SF @ SCU 62 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +68.5% more
Santa Clara: 9.0 vs San Francisco: 2.8
Blocks (L5) +28.8% more
Santa Clara: 2.2 vs San Francisco: 1.6
Assists (L5) +19.4% more
Santa Clara: 15.8 vs San Francisco: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Santa Clara: 37.2% vs San Francisco: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCU Score 89.0 94
SF Score 72.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 37.2 41.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.7 / 15.8 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.6 / 2.2 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 47.6 46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 77.8 79.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 33.3 23.0 / 38.0
Steals 2.8 / 9.0 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 9.1 17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +4.0
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SCU
SF
SCU
ML
39% 13-20
44% 15-19
64% 21-12
73% 22-8
ATS
42% 14-19
53% 18-16
64% 21-12
74% 23-8
TTL
73% 24-9
47% 16-18
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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