CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
17-10 | Road
78
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-19 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
0%
BEACH
100%
MATADORS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
CSUN By 1-7 points
10.7%
CSUN By 8-14 points
21.6%
LBSU By 1-7 points
2.7%
LBSU By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Northridge
79
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Long Beach State
61
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Cal State Northridge
69
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Long Beach State
78
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Matadors (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
CSUN @ LBSU
78 - 76
Jan 17, 2026
LBSU @ CSUN
87 - 80
Feb 8, 2025
CSUN @ LBSU
81 - 80
Jan 23, 2025
LBSU @ CSUN
76 - 86
Feb 17, 2024
LBSU @ CSUN
87 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+41.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 17.9
vs
Long Beach State: 10.4
Rebounding (L5)
+28.9% more
Cal State Northridge: 43.2
vs
Long Beach State: 30.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.5%
Cal State Northridge: 38.3%
vs
Long Beach State: 22.8%
Blocks (L5)
+14.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 4.3
vs
Long Beach State: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score
79.0
78
LBSU Score
61.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
22.8 / 38.3
46.0 / 30.0
Assists
10.4 / 17.9
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.3
7.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
40.4 / 47.7
43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 64.2
74.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
30.7 / 43.2
33.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.4 / 7.5
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 10.4
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
CSUN
LBSU
CSUN
ML
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
67%
22-11
ATS
68%
21-10
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
67%
22-11
TTL
61%
19-12
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
