Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sycamores @ Bruins INST @ BEL

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

10-18  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Curb Event Center Arena
View Odds Details →

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

24-4  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
SYCAMORES --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BELMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Belmont)
SycamoresINST (-3.5) 0 BruinsBEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sycamores Cover

13.6%

Bruins Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BEL -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BEL)

INST By 1-7 points

9.3%

INST By 8-14 points

2.7%

BEL By 1-7 points

21.6%

BEL By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
59
INDIANA STATE
70
BELMONT
Simulated Score
75
INDIANA STATE
78
BELMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 INST @ BEL 70 - 87
Dec 29, 2025 BEL @ INST 80 - 81
Feb 22, 2025 INST @ BEL 75 - 77
Jan 11, 2025 BEL @ INST 84 - 79
Jan 31, 2024 INST @ BEL 78 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.8%
Belmont: 75.9% vs Indiana State: 60.1%
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Belmont: 18.5 vs Indiana State: 16.1
Steals (L5) +13.6% more
Belmont: 6.1 vs Indiana State: 5.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.4%
Belmont: 43.2% vs Indiana State: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 59.0 70
BEL Score 70.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.2 / 32.8 26.0 / 30.0
Assists 18.5 / 16.1 17.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.3 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 52.2 / 46.6 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 60.1 87.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 33.4 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.4 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.7 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
BEL
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BEL
INST
BEL
INST
ML
47% 15-17
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
ATS
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
TTL
44% 14-18
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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