Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Hens @ Blue Raiders DEL @ MTSU

DELAWARE

BLUE HENSDEL

9-17  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

12-14  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE HENS
0%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
BLUE HENS --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue HensDEL (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Hens Cover

27.4%

Blue Raiders Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

DEL By 1-7 points

26.8%

DEL By 8-14 points

24.3%

MTSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

MTSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
DELAWARE
69
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
63
DELAWARE
65
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Hens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 DEL @ MTSU 66 - 78
Feb 7, 2026 MTSU @ DEL 88 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.1%
Delaware: 83.6% vs Middle Tennessee: 64.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Delaware: 37.8% vs Middle Tennessee: 29.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Delaware: 50.0% vs Middle Tennessee: 46.0%
Blocks (L5) +135.5% more
Middle Tennessee: 4.7 vs Delaware: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 75.0 66
MTSU Score 69.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 37.8 24.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.7 / 12.3 14.0 / 5.0
Blocks 4.7 / 2.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 50.0 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 64.5 / 83.6 89.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 30.5 38.0 / 24.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.6 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.2 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
DEL
MTSU
DEL
ML
56% 18-14
45% 14-17
69% 22-10
52% 16-15
ATS
75% 24-8
61% 19-12
69% 22-10
52% 16-15
TTL
53% 17-15
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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