Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Leathernecks MORE @ WIU

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

16-12  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:30 PM ET
Western Hall
View Odds Details →

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

5-23  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
LEATHERNECKS
100%
EAGLES --
LEATHERNECKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Morehead State)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 LeathernecksWIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

84.1%

Leathernecks Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MORE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)

MORE By 1-7 points

23.0%

MORE By 8-14 points

27.2%

WIU By 1-7 points

10.7%

WIU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
76
MOREHEAD STATE
66
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
65
MOREHEAD STATE
70
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leathernecks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Leathernecks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MORE @ WIU 81 - 59
Jan 22, 2026 WIU @ MORE 66 - 71
Feb 15, 2025 MORE @ WIU 67 - 72
Jan 16, 2025 WIU @ MORE 47 - 51
Feb 22, 2024 MORE @ WIU 78 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +31.0% more
Morehead State: 13.8 vs Western Illinois: 9.5
Steals (L5) +29.7% more
Morehead State: 5.4 vs Western Illinois: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5) +17.1%
Morehead State: 78.3% vs Western Illinois: 61.2%
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
Morehead State: 33.6 vs Western Illinois: 27.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 76.0 81
WIU Score 66.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 36.5 31.0 / 29.0
Assists 9.5 / 13.8 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.7 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 51.2 46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 61.2 / 78.3 67.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 27.9 / 33.6 18.0 / 34.0
Steals 3.8 / 5.4 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 13.0 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
MORE
WIU
MORE
ML
45% 14-17
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
ATS
52% 16-15
59% 19-13
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
TTL
45% 14-17
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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