Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Jackrabbits UND @ SDST

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

16-14  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 3:00 PM ET
First Bank & Trust Arena
View Odds Details →

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

JACKRABBITSSDST

12-16  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
JACKRABBITS
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
JACKRABBITS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (South Dakota State)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 JackrabbitsSDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

42.1%

Jackrabbits Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDST)

UND By 1-7 points

23.0%

UND By 8-14 points

12.2%

SDST By 1-7 points

26.8%

SDST By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORTH DAKOTA
71
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
72
NORTH DAKOTA
78
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jackrabbits Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jackrabbits Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jackrabbits (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Jackrabbits (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UND @ SDST 83 - 91
Jan 3, 2026 SDST @ UND 87 - 90
Mar 7, 2025 UND @ SDST 85 - 69
Feb 1, 2025 SDST @ UND 75 - 80
Jan 16, 2025 UND @ SDST 73 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.4% more
South Dakota State: 14.5 vs North Dakota: 10.8
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
South Dakota State: 46.1% vs North Dakota: 42.5%
Blocks (L5) +36.0% more
North Dakota: 2.9 vs South Dakota State: 1.9
Steals (L5) +23.3% more
North Dakota: 7.2 vs South Dakota State: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 69.0 83
SDST Score 71.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 34.1 48.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.5 / 10.8 19.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 42.5 47.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 74.9 84.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 35.1 40.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.5 / 7.2 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 10.8 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
SDST
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
SDST
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
UND
SDST
UND
ML
75% 24-8
44% 15-19
53% 17-15
50% 17-17
ATS
78% 25-7
50% 17-17
53% 17-15
50% 17-17
TTL
53% 17-15
65% 22-12
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 6 hours, 44 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 13 hours, 27 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 19 hours, 35 minutes ago
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day ago
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
si 1 day ago