CHATTANOOGA
MOCSUTC
11-17 | Road
93
THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
9-19 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
MOCS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
THE CITADEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (The Citadel)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIT)
UTC By 1-7 points
16.9%
UTC By 8-14 points
6.8%
CIT By 1-7 points
26.8%
CIT By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chattanooga
74
CHATTANOOGA
The Citadel
80
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
Chattanooga
75
CHATTANOOGA
The Citadel
68
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mocs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Mocs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
CIT @ UTC
88 - 85
Feb 21, 2026
UTC @ CIT
93 - 72
Feb 7, 2026
CIT @ UTC
78 - 71
Feb 22, 2025
CIT @ UTC
75 - 76
Jan 4, 2025
UTC @ CIT
81 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.3% more
The Citadel: 3.3
vs
Chattanooga: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+49.2% more
The Citadel: 7.1
vs
Chattanooga: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+32.1% more
Chattanooga: 14.5
vs
The Citadel: 9.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.4%
Chattanooga: 50.5%
vs
The Citadel: 39.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTC Score
74.0
93
CIT Score
80.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 35.9
27.0 / 48.0
Assists
9.8 / 14.5
13.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.2
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
39.0 / 50.5
33.0 / 61.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 83.9
44.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 31.2
38.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.1 / 4.8
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 9.5
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
CIT
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.8
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
UTC
CIT
UTC
ML
59%
19-13
48%
15-16
62%
20-12
53%
16-14
ATS
62%
20-12
52%
16-15
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
TTL
53%
17-15
77%
24-7
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
David Stearns Opens Up on Mets' 2026 Failures, Offseason Plans a…
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…