Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Mustangs BC @ SMU

BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

9-17  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

18-8  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
EAGLES --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (SMU)
EaglesBC (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

42.1%

Mustangs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

BC By 1-7 points

23.0%

BC By 8-14 points

12.2%

SMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
79
BOSTON COLLEGE
81
SMU
Simulated Score
72
BOSTON COLLEGE
76
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 BC @ SMU 70 - 94
Dec 21, 2024 SMU @ BC 103 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +88.7% more
SMU: 7.2 vs Boston College: 3.8
Assists (L5) +49.1% more
SMU: 19.2 vs Boston College: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5) +27.6%
SMU: 76.6% vs Boston College: 49.0%
Blocks (L5) +10.8% more
SMU: 4.1 vs Boston College: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 79.0 70
SMU Score 81.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.9 / 35.7 33.0 / 31.0
Assists 19.2 / 12.8 22.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.7 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.6 / 45.0 56.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 49.0 72.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 32.2 40.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.2 / 3.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.6 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
BC
SMU
BC
ML
59% 20-14
61% 19-12
73% 24-9
61% 17-11
ATS
62% 21-13
73% 22-8-1
73% 24-9
61% 17-11
TTL
56% 19-15
61% 19-12
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 5 hours ago
Houston Cougars Survive Georgia Southern Scare: Offensive Firepo…
si 1 week, 4 days ago
DeVonta Smith's Star Turn Lifts Eagles Over Titans in Thrilling …
crossingbroad 2 weeks, 4 days ago
Southern Miss Adds Sharpshooter Elliot Tulip to Bolster Perimete…
si 2 weeks, 6 days ago
SMU's Rise from NCAA Scandal to ACC Contender: A New Sheriff in …
oanow 1 month ago