Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Ragin' Cajuns TXST @ UL

TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

18-11  |  Road

54
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Cajundome
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

9-19  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
BOBCATS --
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Texas State)
BobcatsTXST (-3.5) 0 Ragin' CajunsUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

91.9%

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXST -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TXST By 1-7 points

16.9%

TXST By 8-14 points

26.2%

UL By 1-7 points

5.8%

UL By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
84
TEXAS STATE
70
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
72
TEXAS STATE
75
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bobcats (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 TXST @ UL 54 - 67
Jan 14, 2026 UL @ TXST 54 - 59
Jan 30, 2025 UL @ TXST 70 - 61
Jan 23, 2025 TXST @ UL 89 - 74
Jan 28, 2024 TXST @ UL 46 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +45.6% more
Texas State: 17.1 vs Louisiana: 9.3
Turnovers (L5) +31.9% more
Texas State: 10.5 vs Louisiana: 7.1
Field Goal % (L5) +14.6%
Texas State: 53.1% vs Louisiana: 38.6%
Rebounding (L5) +12.3% more
Texas State: 33.7 vs Louisiana: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 84.0 54
UL Score 70.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 37.8 69.0 / 17.0
Assists 9.3 / 17.1 9.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.8 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 38.6 / 53.1 49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 77.8 74.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 33.7 28.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.2 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.1 / 10.5 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST Advantage
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
TXST
UL
TXST
ML
66% 21-11
42% 13-18
63% 19-11
83% 25-5
ATS
66% 21-11
48% 15-16
63% 19-11
84% 26-5
TTL
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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