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ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

19-7  |  Road

90
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Pete Maravich Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LSU

TIGERSLSU

14-12  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 TigersLSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

30.9%

Tigers Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LSU +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)

ALA By 1-7 points

27.2%

ALA By 8-14 points

23.0%

LSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

LSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
ALABAMA
71
LSU
Simulated Score
72
ALABAMA
78
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u171.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u171.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ALA @ LSU 90 - 83
Jan 25, 2025 LSU @ ALA 73 - 80
Feb 10, 2024 ALA @ LSU 109 - 92
Jan 27, 2024 LSU @ ALA 88 - 109
Feb 4, 2023 ALA @ LSU 79 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.6% more
Alabama: 10.8 vs LSU: 7.7
Assists (L5) +28.0% more
Alabama: 17.7 vs LSU: 12.7
Rebounding (L5) +26.2% more
Alabama: 41.2 vs LSU: 30.4
Blocks (L5) +12.8% more
Alabama: 3.0 vs LSU: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 76.0 90
LSU Score 71.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 38.0 45.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.7 / 17.7 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.0 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 49.1 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 78.4 73.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 41.2 39.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.8 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.7 / 10.8 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
ALA
LSU
ALA
ML
62% 20-12
63% 22-13
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
ATS
66% 21-11
60% 21-14
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
TTL
72% 23-9
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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