Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Devils @ Cougars CCSU @ CHST

CENTRAL CONNECTICUT

BLUE DEVILSCCSU

16-10  |  Road

51
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Jones Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

6-22  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
BLUE DEVILS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
CHICAGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Chicago State)
Blue DevilsCCSU (-3.5) 0 CougarsCHST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

9.7%

Cougars Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHST -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHST)

CCSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

CCSU By 8-14 points

1.7%

CHST By 1-7 points

18.6%

CHST By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
59
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
72
CHICAGO STATE
Simulated Score
72
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
68
CHICAGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 CCSU @ CHST 51 - 70
Feb 5, 2026 CHST @ CCSU 67 - 78
Feb 20, 2025 CCSU @ CHST 81 - 75
Jan 26, 2025 CHST @ CCSU 64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.7% more
Chicago State: 7.8 vs Central Connecticut: 6.1
Assists (L5) +8.7% more
Chicago State: 14.8 vs Central Connecticut: 13.6
Blocks (L5) +55.4% more
Central Connecticut: 3.4 vs Chicago State: 1.5
Free Throw % (L5) +15.4%
Central Connecticut: 89.0% vs Chicago State: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCSU Score 59.0 51
CHST Score 72.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 37.8 29.0 / 21.0
Assists 14.8 / 13.6 21.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.4 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 48.4 42.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 89.0 83.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 32.0 37.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.8 / 6.1 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 10.2 5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCSU Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCSU Advantage
14-13-1 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
CHST
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +3.0
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHST
CCSU
CHST
CCSU
ML
75% 24-8
57% 17-13
73% 22-8
57% 17-13
ATS
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
73% 22-8
57% 17-13
TTL
44% 14-18
60% 18-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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