Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redbirds @ Braves ILST @ BRAD

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

18-10  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Carver Arena
View Odds Details →

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

18-10  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
📊
BRAVES
100%
REDBIRDS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 BravesBRAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

34.5%

Braves Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BRAD +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

ILST By 1-7 points

27.4%

ILST By 8-14 points

21.6%

BRAD By 1-7 points

20.1%

BRAD By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
68
ILLINOIS STATE
64
BRADLEY
Simulated Score
68
ILLINOIS STATE
72
BRADLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Redbirds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ILST @ BRAD 60 - 74
Jan 17, 2026 BRAD @ ILST 62 - 88
Feb 19, 2025 BRAD @ ILST 71 - 82
Jan 25, 2025 ILST @ BRAD 57 - 61
Feb 24, 2024 ILST @ BRAD 45 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.6% more
Illinois State: 6.2 vs Bradley: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +20.1% more
Illinois State: 13.9 vs Bradley: 11.1
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Illinois State: 14.9 vs Bradley: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Illinois State: 47.5% vs Bradley: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 68.0 60
BRAD Score 64.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.4 / 36.5 17.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.2 / 14.9 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.3 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 47.5 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 68.0 69.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 34.1 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.7 / 6.2 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 13.9 6.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
BRAD
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRAD
ILST
BRAD
ILST
ML
65% 22-12
42% 15-21
68% 23-11
71% 24-10
ATS
59% 20-14
58% 21-15
68% 23-11
71% 24-10
TTL
68% 23-11
58% 21-15
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Nebraska Basketball Opens Preseason Practice After Historic 28-W…
now1011 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Illinois Basketball: Three Reasons the Illini Are National Title…
si 3 weeks, 3 days ago
Brad Underwood Reveals Why Illinois Added Under-the-Radar Transf…
si 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago