Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Illini @ Bruins ILL @ UCLA

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

22-5  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Pauley Pavilion
View Odds Details →

UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

17-9  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UCLA)
Fighting IlliniILL (-3.5) 0 BruinsUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Illini Cover

46.0%

Bruins Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCLA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

ILL By 1-7 points

24.3%

ILL By 8-14 points

13.7%

UCLA By 1-7 points

26.2%

UCLA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
78
ILLINOIS
79
UCLA
Simulated Score
72
ILLINOIS
75
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ILL @ UCLA 94 - 95
Feb 11, 2025 UCLA @ ILL 78 - 83
Nov 18, 2022 ILL @ UCLA 79 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
UCLA: 9.5 vs Illinois: 7.5
Steals (L5) +13.8% more
UCLA: 5.5 vs Illinois: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +48.9% more
Illinois: 4.9 vs UCLA: 2.5
Assists (L5) +23.6% more
Illinois: 16.1 vs UCLA: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 78.0 94
UCLA Score 79.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 37.1 39.0 / 31.0
Assists 12.3 / 16.1 21.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.9 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 47.7 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 81.8 84.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 39.8 27.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.5 / 4.9 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 7.5 5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
UCLA
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
UCLA
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
ILL
UCLA
ILL
ML
67% 24-12
65% 24-13
76% 25-8
57% 20-15
ATS
61% 22-14
70% 26-11
76% 25-8
57% 20-15
TTL
61% 22-14
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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