EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
10-18 | Road
95
BELLARMINE
KNIGHTSBELL
11-16 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
KNIGHTS
100%
COLONELS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Eastern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EKU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EKU)
EKU By 1-7 points
18.6%
EKU By 8-14 points
26.8%
BELL By 1-7 points
6.8%
BELL By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Kentucky
81
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Bellarmine
68
BELLARMINE
Simulated Score
Eastern Kentucky
75
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Bellarmine
70
BELLARMINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Colonels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colonels (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Colonels (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
EKU @ BELL
95 - 92
Jan 17, 2026
BELL @ EKU
69 - 89
Feb 20, 2025
EKU @ BELL
74 - 80
Jan 18, 2025
BELL @ EKU
69 - 72
Feb 17, 2024
EKU @ BELL
75 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.3% more
Eastern Kentucky: 8.1
vs
Bellarmine: 5.7
Blocks (L5)
+28.3% more
Eastern Kentucky: 3.0
vs
Bellarmine: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+26.1% more
Eastern Kentucky: 37.9
vs
Bellarmine: 28.0
Turnovers (L5)
+22.6% more
Eastern Kentucky: 10.9
vs
Bellarmine: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EKU Score
81.0
95
BELL Score
68.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 28.1
50.0 / 56.0
Assists
15.6 / 15.0
16.0 / 19.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.0
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 42.4
69.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 65.9
88.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
28.0 / 37.9
22.0 / 19.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.1
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.9
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
BELL
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
BELL
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BELL
EKU
BELL
EKU
ML
72%
23-9
44%
14-18
94%
29-2
69%
22-10
ATS
72%
23-9
56%
18-14
94%
29-2
69%
22-10
TTL
50%
16-16
53%
17-15
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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