Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Cougars ARIZ @ HOU

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

24-2  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Fertitta Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

23-3  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
COUGARS
100%
WILDCATS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Arizona)
WildcatsARIZ (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

75.8%

Cougars Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

25.3%

HOU By 1-7 points

15.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
85
ARIZONA
78
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
68
ARIZONA
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 HOU @ ARIZ 74 - 79
Feb 21, 2026 ARIZ @ HOU 73 - 66
Mar 15, 2025 ARIZ @ HOU 64 - 72
Feb 15, 2025 HOU @ ARIZ 62 - 58
Mar 24, 2022 HOU @ ARIZ 72 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.9% more
Arizona: 7.6 vs Houston: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +18.2% more
Arizona: 9.8 vs Houston: 8.1
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Arizona: 42.9 vs Houston: 36.5
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Arizona: 45.5% vs Houston: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 85.0 73
HOU Score 78.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 34.0 31.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.3 / 15.0 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.7 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 45.5 36.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 68.2 82.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 42.9 39.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.4 / 7.6 2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.1 / 9.8 12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ARIZ
HOU
ARIZ
ML
70% 26-11
67% 26-13
68% 23-11
68% 23-11
ATS
70% 26-11
74% 29-10
68% 23-11
68% 23-11
TTL
59% 22-15
56% 22-17
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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