Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tar Heels @ Orange UNC @ SYR

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

20-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 1:00 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome
View Odds Details →

SYRACUSE

ORANGESYR

15-12  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
📊
ORANGE
100%
TAR HEELS --
ORANGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (North Carolina)
Tar HeelsUNC (-3.5) 0 OrangeSYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tar Heels Cover

72.6%

Orange Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UNC By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNC By 8-14 points

24.3%

SYR By 1-7 points

16.9%

SYR By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
NORTH CAROLINA
68
SYRACUSE
Simulated Score
72
NORTH CAROLINA
80
SYRACUSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orange Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Orange (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UNC @ SYR 77 - 64
Feb 2, 2026 SYR @ UNC 77 - 87
Feb 15, 2025 UNC @ SYR 88 - 82
Feb 13, 2024 UNC @ SYR 79 - 86
Jan 13, 2024 SYR @ UNC 67 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +20.2%
North Carolina: 76.1% vs Syracuse: 55.9%
Assists (L5) +10.0% more
North Carolina: 13.7 vs Syracuse: 12.3
Blocks (L5) +155.7% more
Syracuse: 6.5 vs North Carolina: 2.6
Steals (L5) +44.1% more
Syracuse: 5.0 vs North Carolina: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 74.0 77
SYR Score 68.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 29.1 18.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.3 / 13.7 6.0 / 10.0
Blocks 6.5 / 2.6 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 41.3 42.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 55.9 / 76.1 69.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 34.6 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.0 / 3.5 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 8.7 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
SYR
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
SYR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
UNC
SYR
UNC
ML
78% 25-7
76% 25-8
69% 22-10
69% 22-10
ATS
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
69% 22-10
TTL
66% 21-11
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 9 hours, 14 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 15 hours, 47 minutes ago
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day, 3 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 9 hours ago
Kansas Basketball Secures Melvin Council Jr. for Unprecedented S…
realgm 3 days, 23 hours ago