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FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

13-13  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 12:00 PM ET
Littlejohn Coliseum
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

TIGERSCLEM

20-7  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
SEMINOLES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 TigersCLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLEM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

FSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

FSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

CLEM By 1-7 points

24.3%

CLEM By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
80
FLORIDA STATE
79
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
71
FLORIDA STATE
78
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seminoles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 FSU @ CLEM 70 - 65
Feb 15, 2025 CLEM @ FSU 72 - 46
Jan 11, 2025 FSU @ CLEM 57 - 77
Feb 24, 2024 FSU @ CLEM 63 - 74
Jan 20, 2024 CLEM @ FSU 78 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.5% more
Florida State: 4.4 vs Clemson: 3.2
Rebounding (L5) +19.5% more
Florida State: 36.5 vs Clemson: 29.4
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Florida State: 73.7% vs Clemson: 70.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Florida State: 34.9% vs Clemson: 32.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 80.0 70
CLEM Score 79.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 34.9 30.0 / 42.0
Assists 11.5 / 11.9 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 45.1 38.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 73.7 87.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 29.4 / 36.5 29.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.9 / 4.6 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 7.4 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
CLEM Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
CLEM
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
CLEM
13-21-0
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
FSU
CLEM
FSU
ML
63% 22-13
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
ATS
71% 25-10
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
TTL
69% 24-11
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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