Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Pelicans MIL @ NO

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

23-30  |  Road

139
FINAL
Fri, Feb 20 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

15-41  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
BUCKS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Milwaukee)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

97.7%

Pelicans Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-7 points

8.0%

MIL By 8-14 points

18.6%

NO By 1-7 points

1.7%

NO By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113
MILWAUKEE
93
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
112
MILWAUKEE
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bucks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bucks (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u223.5 Loss
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 MIL @ NO 139 - 118
Feb 4, 2026 NO @ MIL 137 - 141
Apr 10, 2025 NO @ MIL 111 - 136
Apr 6, 2025 MIL @ NO 111 - 107
Mar 28, 2024 MIL @ NO 100 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.8% more
Milwaukee: 14.0 vs New Orleans: 12.5
Rebounding (L5) +8.1% more
Milwaukee: 45.7 vs New Orleans: 42.0
Assists (L5) +15.0% more
New Orleans: 27.8 vs Milwaukee: 24.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 113.0 139
NO Score 93.0 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 38.8 16.0 / 42.0
Assists 27.8 / 24.2 22.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.7 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 47.5 54.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 77.0 71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 42.0 / 45.7 37.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.4 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 14.0 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIL
NO
MIL
ML
62% 98-61
64% 61-35
58% 48-35
60% 49-32
ATS
68% 107-51-1
68% 65-31
58% 48-35
60% 49-32
TTL
75% 119-40
55% 53-43
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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