Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Timberwolves DAL @ MIN

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-35  |  Road

111
FINAL
Fri, Feb 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

34-22  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
MAVERICKS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Minnesota)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

27.4%

Timberwolves Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

DAL By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.8%

MIN By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
114
DALLAS
120
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
108
DALLAS
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 MIN @ DAL 124 - 94
Feb 20, 2026 DAL @ MIN 111 - 122
Jan 28, 2026 MIN @ DAL 118 - 105
Nov 17, 2025 DAL @ MIN 96 - 120
Jan 22, 2025 MIN @ DAL 115 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.4% more
Minnesota: 6.2 vs Dallas: 3.8
Steals (L5) +43.4% more
Minnesota: 10.5 vs Dallas: 7.3
Turnovers (L5) +17.5% more
Minnesota: 15.0 vs Dallas: 12.7
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
Minnesota: 26.5 vs Dallas: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 114.0 111
MIN Score 120.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 30.5 38.0 / 32.0
Assists 26.5 / 23.2 28.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.2 / 3.8 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.3 / 47.1 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 71.7 / 75.4 63.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 43.0 / 38.4 54.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.5 / 7.3 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 12.7 19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DAL
MIN
DAL
ML
54% 63-53
62% 63-39
54% 50-43
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 67-49
67% 68-34
54% 50-43
54% 44-37
TTL
63% 72-43-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 93-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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