BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
16-11 | Road
77
MIAMI (OH)
REDHAWKSM-OH
26-0 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
FALCONS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
BGSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
BGSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
M-OH By 1-7 points
5.8%
M-OH By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
84
BOWLING GREEN
Miami (OH)
70
MIAMI (OH)
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
78
BOWLING GREEN
Miami (OH)
65
MIAMI (OH)
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Falcons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
BGSU @ M-OH
77 - 91
Dec 30, 2025
M-OH @ BGSU
93 - 83
Jan 21, 2025
BGSU @ M-OH
76 - 84
Feb 27, 2024
M-OH @ BGSU
66 - 58
Jan 16, 2024
BGSU @ M-OH
78 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+53.1% more
Bowling Green: 5.4
vs
Miami (OH): 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+23.4% more
Bowling Green: 12.2
vs
Miami (OH): 9.4
Rebounding (L5)
+11.6% more
Bowling Green: 37.0
vs
Miami (OH): 32.7
Assists (L5)
+54.7% more
Miami (OH): 15.8
vs
Bowling Green: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
84.0
77
M-OH Score
70.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.1 / 31.5
43.0 / 40.0
Assists
15.8 / 10.2
12.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.5 / 5.4
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 43.9
52.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 72.0
67.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
32.7 / 37.0
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.7
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 12.2
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
M-OH
Advantage
32-2-0
(94.1%)
Margin: 14.1
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
M-OH
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 14.1
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
M-OH
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5%
Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
BGSU
M-OH
BGSU
ML
45%
15-18
66%
21-11
41%
13-19
56%
18-14
ATS
61%
20-13
72%
23-9
41%
13-19
56%
18-14
TTL
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…
Falcons' Future Outlook Dims in ESPN Rankings as QB Woes Persist
Kevin Stefanski's Atlanta Falcons Challenge: A Career Forged in …
WKU Athletics extends contract with Nike, BSN SPORTS
Dec 7, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback …