INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
17-9 | Road
64
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
21-5 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
HOOSIERS
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
IU By 1-7 points
15.3%
IU By 8-14 points
5.8%
PUR By 1-7 points
26.2%
PUR By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
78
INDIANA
Purdue
85
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Indiana
70
INDIANA
Purdue
75
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
IU @ PUR
64 - 93
Jan 27, 2026
PUR @ IU
67 - 72
Feb 23, 2025
PUR @ IU
58 - 73
Jan 31, 2025
IU @ PUR
76 - 81
Feb 10, 2024
IU @ PUR
59 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+229.2% more
Purdue: 7.2
vs
Indiana: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+23.2% more
Purdue: 36.2
vs
Indiana: 29.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Purdue: 34.0%
vs
Indiana: 30.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+15.2% more
Indiana: 9.0
vs
Purdue: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
78.0
64
PUR Score
85.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 30.5
56.0 / 35.0
Assists
16.5 / 15.6
24.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.9
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 46.9
65.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 82.1
68.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 29.4
30.0 / 15.0
Steals
7.2 / 2.2
6.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
7.7 / 9.0
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
IU
PUR
IU
ML
67%
26-13
66%
21-11
66%
25-13
71%
22-9
ATS
64%
25-14
53%
17-15
66%
25-13
71%
22-9
TTL
51%
20-19
56%
18-14
100%
38-0
100%
31-0
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