Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Wolves @ Ragin' Cajuns ARST @ UL

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

16-11  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Cajundome
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

9-18  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
0%
📊
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
RED WOLVES --
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red WolvesARST (-3.5) 0 Ragin' CajunsUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wolves Cover

38.2%

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

ARST By 1-7 points

27.2%

ARST By 8-14 points

20.1%

UL By 1-7 points

21.6%

UL By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
87
ARKANSAS STATE
84
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
75
ARKANSAS STATE
82
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Wolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ragin' Cajuns (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 UL @ ARST 58 - 81
Feb 19, 2026 ARST @ UL 79 - 62
Feb 26, 2025 ARST @ UL 83 - 64
Jan 16, 2025 UL @ ARST 63 - 83
Mar 9, 2024 UL @ ARST 62 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +50.2% more
Arkansas State: 20.1 vs Louisiana: 10.0
Turnovers (L5) +36.6% more
Arkansas State: 14.5 vs Louisiana: 9.2
Rebounding (L5) +35.4% more
Arkansas State: 48.6 vs Louisiana: 31.4
Steals (L5) +17.7% more
Arkansas State: 7.9 vs Louisiana: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 87.0 79
UL Score 84.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 38.2 26.0 / 21.0
Assists 10.0 / 20.1 8.0 / 5.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 45.1 32.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 62.9 73.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 48.6 26.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.9 8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 14.5 3.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
ARST
UL
ARST
ML
66% 21-11
48% 15-16
63% 19-11
53% 16-14
ATS
66% 21-11
58% 18-13
63% 19-11
53% 16-14
TTL
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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